POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR INDIA AND STATES 2001-2026

Note: This article is useful for MPSC MAINS PAPER 3

The salient features of the population projections at the national level, and some of the underlying assumptions in this regard, are as under:

• The population of India is expected to increase from 1029 million to 1400 million during the period 2001-2026 - an increase of 36 percent in twenty- five years at the rate of 1.2 percent annually.
• the density of population will increase from 313 to 426 persons per square kilometer.
• The crude birth rate will decline from 23.2 during 2001-05 to 16.0 during 2021-25 because of falling level of total fertility.
• In contrast, the crude death rate is expected to fall marginally due to changing age structure of the population with the rising median age as a result of continuing decline in fertility and increase in the expectation of life at birth. It will drop from 7.5 during 2001-05 to 7.2 during 2021-25. 
• The infant mortality rate of the country, which is reported to be 63 in 2002, is estimated to decline to 61 during the period 2001-05 and is expected to go down to 40 by the end of the period 2021-25. 
• Between 2001 and 2026, because of the declining fertility, the proportion of population aged under 15 years is projected to decline from 35.4 to 23.4 percent; the proportion of the middle (15-59 years) and the older ages (60 years and above) are set to increase considerably.
• the number of older persons in the population is expected to increase by more than double from 71 million in 2001 to 173 million in 2026 - an increase in their share to the total population from 6.9 to 12.4 percent.
• The proportion of population in the working age-group 15-59 years is expected to rise from 57.7 percent in 2001 to 64.3 percent in 2026. 
• The youth population in the age- group 15-24 years is expected to increase from 195 million in 2001 to 240 million in 2011 and then continue to decrease to 224 million in 2026.
• Its proportion to total population is expected to fall from 19 percent in 2001 to 16 percent in 2026.
• Out of the total population increase of 371 million between 2001 and 2026, the share of the workers in the age-group 15-59 years in this total increase is 83 percent. This has implication in the productivity of labour in future. 
• The sex ratio of the total population (females per 1000 males) is expected to decrease (i.e. become less feminine) from 933 in 2001 to 930 during 2026. 
• The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is expected to decline from 2.9 during 2001-2005 to 2.0 during 2021-25. The assumption is that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) would decline steadily and would touch the floor value of 1.8 in some states.
• The urban population in the country, which is 28 percent in 2001, is expected to increase to 38 percent by 2026.
• The State, which is expected to have least growth in the quarter century (2001-2026) is Tamil Nadu (15 percent), followed by Kerala (17 percent).
• In contrast, Delhi will have the highest projected growth of 102 percent during 2001-2026.
• The population of Uttar Pradesh is expected to be highest among all the states of the country at almost 249 million in 2026. 
• nearly 50 percent of India’s demographic growth during this period of twenty five years, is projected to take place in the BIMARU seven states.
• Twenty two percent of the total population increase in India of 371 million during 2001-26 is anticipated to occur in Uttar Pradesh alone.
• In contrast, the contribution of the four southern states, namely Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, to the total increase in population size of the country during 2001-2026 is expected to be 47 million -thirteen percent of total demographic growth of the country.
• Continuing decline in fertility and increase in the expectation of life at birth is expected to make a difference to the proportion of older population (60 years and above) between states.
• The State of Kerala, where the proportion of older persons aged 60 years and above is expected to increase from 11 percent in 2001 to 18 percent in 2026, Thus, almost every sixth individual in Kerala is expected to be a senior citizen by 2026.
• In contrast, Uttar Pradesh is expected to have an increase of the proportion of old age population from 6 percent in 2001 to 10 percent in 2026, implying that the population of Uttar Pradesh will be expected to be relatively younger compared to that of Kerala.
• The infant mortality rate (IMR) is expected to decline in all the states during 2001-25,The IMR, which was highest in Orissa in 2002 at 87 is expected to come down to 52 in 2021-25, followed by Madhya Pradesh (51).
• The lowest IMR is expected to be in Kerala, from 12 in 2001-05 to 8 during 2021-25.
• Lowest sex ratio of 789 is expected to be in Delhi in 2026, followed by 839 and 840 in Haryana and Punjab respectively.
• In the southern and eastern states except Kerala, the situation would be reverse. In Kerala, where there are excess females than males in Census 2001, the trend would remain the same in 2026.
• Tamil Nadu is the other state, where the number of females is expected to be equal to the number of males in 2026 (Fig. 11). 
• It is observed that by 2026, 99 percent of Delhi’s population would be living in urban areas, which is highest among the states, In contrast, 12 percent of the population of Bihar would be expected to live in urban areas by the same year (2026),which is lowest among all the states.

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